TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hertha BSC win on 2025-12-19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,058 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No50c19,997$9,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,998.79455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd56b…903dbacked Yes49c3,707$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d47…b10cbacked No51c3,707$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No52c3,562$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.331,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3024…c4acbacked No52c3,190$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Yes48c3,125$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed No51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.989854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Yes4c2,600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.71238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No53c2,033$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.913,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No34c2,027$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.642,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5520…32ffbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Yes46c1,905$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.316428.1%18 W · 46 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No57c1,512$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.355444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked Yes4c1,300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5280%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No37c1,146$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.355058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes47c1,014$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.8415829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5675…f99cbacked Yes48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-72.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed No52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Yes66c881.56$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.41944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes49c867.77$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.2156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No51c864.99$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.9514254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes47c830$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.11723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a4e…3309backed Yes37c810.05$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-70.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes8c800$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed Yes39c678.7$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2661566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3790…5e8bbacked Yes48c630$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.42875%21 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed No9c500$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45515847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No65c499.99$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes45c401.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.533641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed No52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1922378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked No50c393.3$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.652040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes39c388.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.46439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a9…ad8bbacked Yes42c356.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.04825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-54.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes45c319.37$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7420436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Yes49c255.1$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-62%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked No53c248.29$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.299542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No34c245.83$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.5613332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No41c244.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.3616542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e88…f3c9backed Yes42c240$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes79c226.19$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.445955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes48c210$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.811252.7%59 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006147.5%29 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004854.2%26 W · 22 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4523…0be0backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802850%14 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…d2b1backed Yes44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes49c193.88$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9534547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked No52c191.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.171492.9%13 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick68cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed No53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.688532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x590b…7fd6backed No54c185.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes54c179.94$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5756951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da0…2f48backed Yes50c176.94$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.473250%16 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes14c156.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes46c142.09$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.362725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Yes46c136.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25fd…6219backed No52c134$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes49c130.88$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.132450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked No50c130$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6513142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd549…296dbacked Yes46c129.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.161030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bef…f80abacked Yes48c129.17$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes44c120.16$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.872544%11 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+51.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes50c116.26$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.136645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes47c106$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.821861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a51…bde9backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8512…2ee1backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Yes49c99.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499062.2%56 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85cc…4895backed No51c99.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.991877.8%14 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+44.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Yes49c91.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0619544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…6207backed Yes22c81.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc8…8198backed Yes51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No32c73.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.048946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d32…fe50backed Yes46c72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.12922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff17…c0edbacked Yes44c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked No50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356154.1%33 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3518…9664backed Yes50c69.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d8…0074backed Yes49c69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Yes44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309548.4%46 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f04…c455backed Yes49c65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b80…a0d2backed Yes48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No49c59.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f1…139ebacked No53c50.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.947100%7 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.538151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f2…d036backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe406…4cc1backed Yes50c49.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick48cpaid-64.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a5f…3670backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64a3…cc70backed Yes46c46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick57cpaid-78.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d6c…2854backed Yes44c45.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.025156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56e6…45e9backed No50c44.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.474858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Yes50c40.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4819055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Yes49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb96…0deabacked Yes49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.