Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b46f3a64bf96b7c081d470dd8f38b732c01d60937d5684794c382db00bc8776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 6c | 1,132$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,067$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 14c | 790.47$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 14c | 490.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 350$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 18c | 311.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 18c | 256.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 12c | 249.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…d577backed No | 67c | 135$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b79…5281backed No | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed No | 76c | 116.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 108.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed No | 77c | 104.24$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…4c94backed Yes | 47c | 93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked No | 70c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…4420backed No | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…6641backed Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0e37backed Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b58…7273backed No | 73c | 59.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…b715backed Yes | 24c | 49.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…d49cbacked Yes | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…932dbacked Yes | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…fc45backed No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeea…8921backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf83…b49dbacked Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be0…09debacked Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed No | 71c | 34.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…6c28backed No | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5d…2a88backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd97…ea8bbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…b469backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…6b49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…841cbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.