Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf40f11e2d64fac758df41d9efcf7ed7384ace3de156c021b158d18808b47e657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 1c | 1,232$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…c8b0backed Yes | 23c | 347$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed Yes | 28c | 301.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 10c | 286.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…0c40backed No | 78c | 257$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 11c | 232.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8f…b508backed No | 70c | 148$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 13c | 139.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 21c | 110.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea11…d295backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e6…6ab2backed Yes | 30c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0868…33f3backed Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fb…f8c2backed Yes | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb7…fc5abacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7060…f065backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eda…8235backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…0ebebacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957a…43b8backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5216…c598backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…8cd3backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…9161backed Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 50c | 36.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…8d02backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd318…637bbacked No | 78c | 30.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b63…5a13backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…7f82backed No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…339abacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…a152backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…2f14backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ee…1f72backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…8657backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…024dbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf682…86ffbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…3d84backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4249…76a5backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…dc7bbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d4…9b42backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3682…6a80backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…8bc5backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41d…47dfbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…9fd9backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf905…7870backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.