NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Bucks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b9b44c26235d7d844e44d72a53db14e8ca68e29b8f123f76782c720dd2bbc4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Bulls, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Bucks | 70c | 3,487$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454.74 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Bulls | 21c | 2,886$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.59 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed Bulls | 17c | 1,519$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.92 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Bulls | 23c | 1,305$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.96 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Bulls | 19c | 948.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.49 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Bulls | 18c | 799.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.95 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Bucks | 79c | 732.4$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.53 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0952…786dbacked Bucks | 80c | 727.48$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.91 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Bucks | 57c | 702.8$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.76 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Bucks | 27c | 650.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.35 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Bulls | 58c | 620.68$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367c…f5f5backed Bulls | 25c | 600$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Bulls | 20c | 500$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Bulls | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Bulls | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Bulls | 20c | 332.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.85 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Bucks | 57c | 316.55$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.87 | 1,197 | 46.7%559 W · 638 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Bucks | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…3a25backed Bulls | 24c | 252.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.07 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…970ebacked Bucks | 79c | 215.19$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…286ebacked Bucks | 79c | 180.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4b…f1e6backed Bucks | 56c | 177.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Bucks | 41c | 149.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 117 | 19.7%23 W · 94 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Bulls | 23c | 128.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…9741backed Bucks | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Bucks | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…4334backed Bulls | 23c | 121.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Bulls | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…a8d7backed Bulls | 19c | 104.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Bulls | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc136…0c3bbacked Bulls | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70e…54bfbacked Bulls | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…3e66backed Bucks | 75c | 67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c5…4fa3backed Bucks | 79c | 56.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked Bulls | 67c | 56.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…ffd4backed Bulls | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Bulls | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bucks | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Bucks | 56c | 44.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde96…5290backed Bucks | 43c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Bucks | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 69.1%96 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d3…7a61backed Bucks | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb43d…b9c6backed Bucks | 80c | 24.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Bucks | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…e696backed Bucks | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b21…b755backed Bucks | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…ebcdbacked Bucks | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…6c29backed Bucks | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.