Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ba819136fb464f0df72fa542e73f366a36445073fc9db3e7466e652a2f1bcf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 380.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 16c | 344.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.31 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…1558backed No | 3c | 315.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 275.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 57c | 233.4$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 68c | 203.37$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 176.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.7 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 54c | 174.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 28c | 108.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 101.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes | 61c | 98.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 22c | 88.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 87.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 67c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 73.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 70.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 16c | 63.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 58.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 51.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 48.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 75c | 40.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 28.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 56c | 25.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 68c | 21.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…dd14backed No | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 13.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.