CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bb3f81bdd780179fa1586680487c6c601ba00e83dc799ac2aad379f5fb25e95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZ NXTof Ursa, MOUZ NXT
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde8f…2c72backed Ursa | 53c | 9,337$4,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,930.63 | 280 | 56.4%158 W · 122 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed MOUZ NXT | 47c | 1,946$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.21 | 219 | 45.7%100 W · 119 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed MOUZ NXT | 48c | 1,810$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.42 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked MOUZ NXT | 47c | 1,500$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.86 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…8044backed Ursa | 51c | 1,498$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.37 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed MOUZ NXT | 47c | 606.64$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed MOUZ NXT | 47c | 606.35$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.39 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d5…306dbacked MOUZ NXT | 49c | 567.39$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.39 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…d07ebacked MOUZ NXT | 46c | 557.91$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.71 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed MOUZ NXT | 47c | 555.82$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.34 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed Ursa | 52c | 552.53$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.38 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked MOUZ NXT | 47c | 519.85$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.5 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed MOUZ NXT | 46c | 515.77$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.44 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Ursa | 54c | 476.07$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.37 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…9384backed MOUZ NXT | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed MOUZ NXT | 47c | 354.67$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.77 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ursa | 55c | 329$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.81 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…5c4cbacked MOUZ NXT | 45c | 289.38$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.16 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed MOUZ NXT | 50c | 288.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.47 | 474 | 47.5%225 W · 249 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed MOUZ NXT | 50c | 286$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed MOUZ NXT | 51c | 280$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed MOUZ NXT | 46c | 264.13$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed MOUZ NXT | 47c | 186.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 280 | 52.9%148 W · 132 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…66a8backed MOUZ NXT | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x045a…b9a4backed MOUZ NXT | 50c | 116$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…df1dbacked Ursa | 50c | 110.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed MOUZ NXT | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…3734backed MOUZ NXT | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed MOUZ NXT | 46c | 80.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed MOUZ NXT | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked MOUZ NXT | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 239 | 52.3%125 W · 114 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Ursa | 51c | 62.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 206 | 46.6%96 W · 110 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Ursa | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed MOUZ NXT | 48c | 41.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 231 | 58.4%135 W · 96 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed MOUZ NXT | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Ursa | 54c | 40.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…3738backed Ursa | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked MOUZ NXT | 46c | 32.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked MOUZ NXT | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerMOUZ NXT won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.