TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZ NXTof MOUZ NXT, Ursa
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,979
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,979 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x568c…fbd0backed Ursa62c6,190$3,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,808.72560%15 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8f…2c72backed Ursa78c5,305$4,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,157.0328056.4%158 W · 122 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ NXT46c5,043$2,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,724.293,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed MOUZ NXT42c3,529$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,040.261,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ NXT43c3,451$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.531,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Ursa55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65075056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed Ursa55c2,700$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.9943455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf981…44b7backed Ursa55c2,332$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.119761.9%60 W · 37 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed MOUZ NXT45c2,224$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.4721947.5%104 W · 115 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked MOUZ NXT43c1,983$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.562,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Ursa54c1,818$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.5616850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked MOUZ NXT45c1,812$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.851,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8668…7f8fbacked MOUZ NXT44c1,132$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.5913343.6%58 W · 75 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Ursa56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56016653%88 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed MOUZ NXT45c866.03$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.2252951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa63c780.21$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.865,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed MOUZ NXT72c721.48$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.5723072.6%167 W · 63 L+27.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed MOUZ NXT37c715.96$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.0513646.3%63 W · 73 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ursa59c655.98$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.292,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ NXT37c645.36$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.584,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Ursa59c588.55$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34598856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed MOUZ NXT55c500$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22429347.8%140 W · 153 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed MOUZ NXT55c500$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22433241.6%138 W · 194 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked MOUZ NXT38c499.91$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.951,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked MOUZ NXT25c458.35$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.5717849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c2…4933backed Ursa54c449.63$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.674261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d42…cde0backed MOUZ NXT53c436.14$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.997152.1%37 W · 34 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed MOUZ NXT35c412.01$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.7355950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked MOUZ NXT60c405$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.564,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed MOUZ NXT31c404.86$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.259634.4%33 W · 63 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed MOUZ NXT21c404.76$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.7627831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked MOUZ NXT65c377.7$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.334,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed Ursa30c370$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.314037.1%52 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed Ursa56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014151.8%73 W · 68 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ NXT30c352.36$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.17,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Ursa43c349$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.665,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Ursa38c337$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.292,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ NXT34c316.42$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.425,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Ursa65c306.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0527544%121 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Ursa56c270.19$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.311,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Ursa62c241.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020344.3%90 W · 113 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Ursa70c239.49$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5316344.8%73 W · 90 L-32.6wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-34.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked MOUZ NXT31c223.68$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2322838.6%88 W · 140 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked MOUZ NXT21c220.68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.346639.4%26 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed Ursa50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4511254.5%61 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked MOUZ NXT21c201.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.411740.2%47 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…ad11backed MOUZ NXT21c201.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.41250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Ursa50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed MOUZ NXT34c194.23$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.139441.5%39 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Ursa7c190.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.945,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed MOUZ NXT40c186.66$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11210133.7%34 W · 67 L-14.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed MOUZ NXT21c183.05$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.614247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed MOUZ NXT44c181.44$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.031,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Ursa62c181.28$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.262,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed MOUZ NXT33c176.51$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.224,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d87…df1dbacked Ursa29c172.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7617545.7%80 W · 95 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Ursa23c159$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4937441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Ursa62c129.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3231852.8%168 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Ursa22c127.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.882,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf232…5ff0backed Ursa63c126.31$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.582540%10 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Ursa41c121$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.362,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc882…0662backed MOUZ NXT46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.813333.1%44 W · 89 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc5e…52f0backed MOUZ NXT44c108.63$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.362744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1aee…8796backed Ursa55c106.07$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3428254.6%154 W · 128 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed MOUZ NXT34c104.25$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.819329%56 W · 137 L-23.4wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Ursa50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.295642.6%407 W · 549 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc8…f527backed Ursa30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3048826.2%128 W · 360 L-44.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-30.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41f6…f591backed MOUZ NXT37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.18236.6%30 W · 52 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Ursa40c94$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.542,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked MOUZ NXT38c85.54$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0325042.4%106 W · 144 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Ursa56c80$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.21,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked MOUZ NXT35c75.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3538942.4%165 W · 224 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed MOUZ NXT33c73.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.963046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked MOUZ NXT41c71.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9814144%62 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ NXT64c70.35$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf919…3241backed MOUZ NXT38c66.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd711…749cbacked Ursa51c64.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7411655.2%64 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe89e…d4a7backed MOUZ NXT36c60.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.212951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf99e…bde6backed Ursa68c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4158762.2%365 W · 222 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa57c56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.782,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea37…94f3backed Ursa55c54.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3032951.7%170 W · 159 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7f…d8dbbacked MOUZ NXT22c54.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.220744%91 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e6…e722backed Ursa66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3326245.8%120 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ NXT48c42.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.512,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Ursa58c41.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9385054.4%462 W · 388 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Ursa41c41.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.053,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed MOUZ NXT72c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4842427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked MOUZ NXT50c40.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.019061.1%55 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed Ursa64c38.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3210854.6%59 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7a6bbacked MOUZ NXT36c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.420646.6%96 W · 110 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9c…5369backed MOUZ NXT80c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.618758.3%109 W · 78 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Ursa53c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.962,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcf4…a399backed Ursa79c31.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256251.6%32 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked MOUZ NXT48c31.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.527015.2%41 W · 229 L-41.9wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-54.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Ursa55c31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0565548.9%320 W · 335 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed MOUZ NXT34c31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.461,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked MOUZ NXT34c30.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0216250%81 W · 81 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed MOUZ NXT52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41,00355.7%559 W · 444 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Ursa51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.233231.3%10 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-44.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked MOUZ NXT36c29.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6489248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.