TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ursaof MOUZ NXT, Ursa
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$139,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$168,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,579 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ NXT43c19,109$8,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,179.593,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa67c11,858$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,858.735,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked MOUZ NXT30c10,584$3,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,157.759739.2%38 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa69c8,541$5,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,667.7384454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde8f…2c72backed Ursa50c6,284$3,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,154.1528056.4%158 W · 122 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Ursa47c5,677$2,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,025.5716653%88 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked MOUZ NXT48c5,171$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.252,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Ursa55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.9975056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf981…44b7backed Ursa52c3,999$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.869761.9%60 W · 37 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed MOUZ NXT58c3,468$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99541847.1%197 W · 221 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa80c…5a6dbacked Ursa57c3,233$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.715759.6%34 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ NXT50c3,187$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.927,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked MOUZ NXT35c2,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.831,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed MOUZ NXT31c2,213$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.2520743%89 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Ursa63c1,986$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.8845465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Ursa55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.1316850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked MOUZ NXT46c1,805$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.7366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Ursa73c1,725$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.4216344.8%73 W · 90 L-32.6wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-34.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Ursa67c1,693$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.5835153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4cd…a898backed Ursa48c1,669$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.488953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked MOUZ NXT31c1,565$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.26243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked MOUZ NXT18c1,509$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.8937441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed MOUZ NXT32c1,497$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.211,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ NXT34c1,472$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.986,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ NXT40c1,428$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.275,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Ursa71c1,388$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.6184958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bd9…ea45backed MOUZ NXT29c1,236$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.692218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed MOUZ NXT30c1,128$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.942,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed MOUZ NXT31c1,124$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35017758.2%103 W · 74 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked MOUZ NXT54c1,091$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.9727548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45fa…f86fbacked MOUZ NXT32c1,084$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.851353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8668…7f8fbacked Ursa42c1,021$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.4513343.6%58 W · 75 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Ursa71c1,001$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.998052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x274e…1d72backed MOUZ NXT27c953.28$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.89922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Ursa58c878.24$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.8322838.6%88 W · 140 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed MOUZ NXT31c836.31$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2613646.3%63 W · 73 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea4d…c654backed Ursa49c834.48$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.791361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Ursa47c832.24$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.9452951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5c2…4933backed Ursa51c781.75$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.714261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x623d…3aeebacked MOUZ NXT31c780.65$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24210137.6%38 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Ursa66c759.94$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.522,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed MOUZ NXT31c695.32$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4240639.4%160 W · 246 L-1.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MOUZ NXT32c656.58$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20832542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbba…c191backed Ursa72c620.98$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.882055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Ursa40c615.59$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.215,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Ursa67c614.31$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.291,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Ursa72c607.74$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1727552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Ursa61c598.27$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.061,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Ursa43c581.4$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.498856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1534…ae26backed MOUZ NXT37c575.03$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.762540%10 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ NXT55c570.07$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.055,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed MOUZ NXT14c560$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.314037.1%52 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed MOUZ NXT33c549.24$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.2546243.3%200 W · 262 L+1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a6b…66b6backed MOUZ NXT59c540$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.64450%22 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Ursa68c528.91$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.341,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked MOUZ NXT29c505.86$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.754543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ursa71c500$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.942,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Ursa73c488$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7657641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed MOUZ NXT33c468.18$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.54427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed MOUZ NXT45c462.52$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.2810133.7%34 W · 67 L-14.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed MOUZ NXT28c450$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1262850%14 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf15…2aa9backed MOUZ NXT48c439.97$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.195253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Ursa59c429.99$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.635861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b2…0f1ebacked MOUZ NXT33c426.98$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed Ursa56c406.42$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.759634.4%33 W · 63 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Ursa50c403.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.922954.6%125 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Ursa40c400.23$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.9925944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1eb3…6bfebacked MOUZ NXT28c399.96$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.997540%30 W · 45 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed Ursa70c374.57$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.229441.5%39 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Ursa41c368.31$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.351,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked MOUZ NXT33c355$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1534943%150 W · 199 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked MOUZ NXT14c355$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.330348.5%147 W · 156 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked Ursa71c354.08$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0814544.8%65 W · 80 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe69c…e14cbacked MOUZ NXT33c350.69$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-56.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed Ursa51c350$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8611254.5%61 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked MOUZ NXT23c331.14$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7130031.7%95 W · 205 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ NXT40c326.84$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.44,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed MOUZ NXT32c320$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0548240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0cc…ce77backed MOUZ NXT34c308.35$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8411435.1%40 W · 74 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Ursa73c308.22$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.221,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Ursa66c304.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3848562.7%304 W · 181 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed MOUZ NXT32c301.59$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.515749.1%28 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed MOUZ NXT28c299.76$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8419643.4%85 W · 111 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1661…4b37backed Ursa68c293.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.917349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765b…7ce7backed MOUZ NXT33c291.94$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.34650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Ursa63c288.54$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6955950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked MOUZ NXT41c281.07$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.752,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Ursa73c275.71$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1511740.2%47 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Ursa73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9738052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked MOUZ NXT61c256.36$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3710063%63 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc5e…52f0backed MOUZ NXT39c255.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6cc…038fbacked MOUZ NXT60c252.06$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked MOUZ NXT36c250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909537.9%36 W · 59 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed MOUZ NXT57c246.96$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7137440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed MOUZ NXT54c240$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.541,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc882…0662backed MOUZ NXT38c240$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.213333.1%44 W · 89 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked MOUZ NXT36c232.5$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.763541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Ursa66c228.28$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.283663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked MOUZ NXT34c218.22$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.325042.4%106 W · 144 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed MOUZ NXT34c210$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.42,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.