South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús vs. CA Talleres end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6be72b4c1c59d3dcc86bb12cd4e6648f9c96232e467a27bb242991a4860ea9e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 57c | 26,495$15,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,102.32 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 18,778$8,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,632.18 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 43c | 3,107$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.33 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 43c | 1,663$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.04 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Yes | 43c | 860.47$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 43c | 800$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 43c | 400$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 46c | 290.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.23 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 46c | 275.35$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.33 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 41c | 231.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.58 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 187.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Yes | 36c | 158.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.69 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…997cbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 21c | 93.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 44c | 87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 32c | 65.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 31c | 48.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 43c | 47.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 46c | 45.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 69c | 45.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…1943backed No | 58c | 41.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 31c | 38.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed No | 52c | 35.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…799abacked No | 57c | 30.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…8772backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…a590backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Yes | 44c | 25.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a75…9d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…5745backed Yes | 74c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús vs. CA Talleres end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-02-09?No won
- Will CA Talleres win on 2026-02-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.