Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6beed035b822765928651e40a51c826cf2976eb5e639d07dfc387043150489e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 18c | 7,563$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,201.51 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 32c | 5,896$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.11 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 80c | 3,444$2,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.2 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 2,015$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.03 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 27c | 886.53$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.53 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 74c | 409.42$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Over | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 31c | 116$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 107.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 54c | 99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 46c | 94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 38c | 79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 63c | 62.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 32c | 53.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 71c | 36.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Under | 70c | 35.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Under | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.