Mls · resolved market
Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a678db0e23ae39212ce8a2c02368364da0bc25fd7d0f5497df6d8ed9c86c153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CF Montréalof D.C. United SC, CF Montréal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed D.C. United SC | 30c | 718.88$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.42 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CF Montréal | 61c | 665.98$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.47 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed D.C. United SC | 50c | 568.16$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.03 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked D.C. United SC | 19c | 454.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed CF Montréal | 33c | 362.3$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.38 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked CF Montréal | 77c | 310.36$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed CF Montréal | 65c | 306.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed D.C. United SC | 75c | 264.29$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked D.C. United SC | 75c | 264.29$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.08 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked CF Montréal | 19c | 262.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.69 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked D.C. United SC | 26c | 224.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked CF Montréal | 71c | 190.85$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed CF Montréal | 71c | 134.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked CF Montréal | 75c | 132.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed D.C. United SC | 26c | 116.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed D.C. United SC | 24c | 103.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked CF Montréal | 74c | 98.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked CF Montréal | 75c | 66.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed D.C. United SC | 75c | 66.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed CF Montréal | 63c | 53.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed D.C. United SC | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed CF Montréal | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked CF Montréal | 77c | 31.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked CF Montréal | 66c | 25.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…858abacked CF Montréal | 78c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked CF Montréal | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CF Montréal | 68c | 22.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked CF Montréal | 73c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked CF Montréal | 74c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed D.C. United SC | 80c | 15.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)this page
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.