Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c60e14202eaf29132eb88d37f341a099faadd8336efd6a234e184894280e5f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 7,807$4,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,361.7 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 58c | 7,386$4,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,116.47 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 4,000$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.26 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 78c | 3,544$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 3,228$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.91 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 1,898$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.95 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 42c | 1,600$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 40c | 1,538$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.1 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 1,526$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.38 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 42c | 761.79$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.95 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 37c | 723.93$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.17 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 4c | 445.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 43c | 421.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 32c | 350.2$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 42c | 260$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 65c | 243.43$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 42c | 238.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Under | 43c | 232.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 42c | 225$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 64c | 206.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 58c | 193.1$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 172$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 42c | 156$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 42c | 156$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 45c | 132.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…e559backed Under | 35c | 117.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 54c | 93.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…dd56backed Under | 43c | 86.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Over | 54c | 80.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 70c | 57.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Over | 58c | 54.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 44c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 44c | 49.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 49.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 42c | 47.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 29c | 44.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 42c | 37.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 67c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.