Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26e3ad9c8e400595e1cda08301ba196c66c709f49e22a8ed187aa740aa497e7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 36c | 17,583$6,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,308.1 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 53c | 4,939$2,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,606.47 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 2,099$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.79 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 1,961$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.22 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 64c | 1,600$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 968.06$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.09 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 64c | 703.13$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 64c | 700$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 65c | 646.25$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.01 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 64c | 600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 64c | 592$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.88 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 574.47$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.82 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 64c | 525$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 55c | 465.63$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 64c | 375.23$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 362.82$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.86 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Under | 14c | 360.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 54c | 316.17$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 64c | 260$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 64c | 260$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 52c | 212$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 65c | 192$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 66c | 182.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 60c | 165.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 64c | 156$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 64c | 156$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 34c | 151.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.87 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 64c | 140$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 114$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 57c | 56.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 42c | 55.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Under | 35c | 53.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 67c | 44.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Under | 65c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 64c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 50c | 22.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Under | 65c | 18.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…2e5bbacked Under | 67c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 63c | 16.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.