Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine responsible for Moscow attack?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf8a16a0d31d4a2431ccad2ffa7341415ebdb3a63d7dcb7765c0a5d8ca92655
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $349,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $382,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 4c | 36,741$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Yes | 3c | 31,372$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 0c | 19,501$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 17,598$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.83 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 2c | 13,760$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.52 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…4d41backed Yes | 4c | 7,173$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4690…20f4backed Yes | 3c | 6,632$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…be0dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,542$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 0c | 6,350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f07…b421backed Yes | 3c | 5,765$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed Yes | 3c | 4,414$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,699$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 3c | 3,301$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,049$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 4c | 2,225$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 4c | 2,130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…de67backed Yes | 5c | 2,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…40cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,850$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…93e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…0021backed Yes | 2c | 1,177$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…0075backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 6c | 918.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…5bc5backed Yes | 5c | 638$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 4c | 594.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…deacbacked Yes | 4c | 577.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…662cbacked Yes | 4c | 550$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…91f1backed Yes | 5c | 520.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 4c | 444.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0165backed Yes | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.