Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c068aaa00def23ed2ed1e4c8862c9871ac3fd4d8f27322598781858cfbeb3f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 1,340$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 409.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 11c | 295.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 14c | 253.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 240.27$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 214.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 195.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 176.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 173.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 163.9$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 13c | 163.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 11c | 152.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 11c | 132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 15c | 122.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 10c | 117.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 67c | 99.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 20c | 74.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 39c | 67.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 25c | 57.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 56.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 52.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 77c | 44.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 78c | 43.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 53c | 37.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 33.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 75c | 31.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…bc3ebacked No | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 25.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 78c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.