Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8ac25c0a8f81a2ef5547c2a7c16320b8b6e9731ded09c5d8d3078a587450a98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 3c | 1,037$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 2c | 573.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 349.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 301.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 13c | 176.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 20c | 165.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 147.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 14c | 138.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 9c | 114.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ddc0backed Yes | 21c | 93.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 80.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 80c | 39.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 80c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.