Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c13287f0e7cf1745cf5b4e33f3cc92c8f2947bfccabe9742167a6ce18d7fd43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 286.86$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.74 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 261.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.32 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 208.66$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 175.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…32c1backed No | 69c | 145.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 115$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 105.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 31c | 89.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 23c | 76.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 61c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 71.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 69.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 60c | 49.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 33c | 38.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 37.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 49c | 35.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 46c | 34.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 35c | 29.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed No | 80c | 28.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…c215backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.