Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c1d52eac4bdf1d9d33c0ecd5833fa526dabc0dae19f9e60c8045936ef838173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 38c | 653.58$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.75 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 281.19$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 191.44$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 12c | 191.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 27c | 175.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 12c | 157.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 16c | 137$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 135.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 17c | 88.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 88.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 82.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 78.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 17c | 72.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 68.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 67.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 63.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 68c | 60.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 21c | 50.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 41c | 48.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 48.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 47.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 66c | 42.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 33.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 33.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 54c | 25.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 24.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.