Tennis · resolved market
ITF Wetzlar: Murkel Dellien vs Lars Goran Verwerft
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c36aa48fac71b0a187b0332b38b06abbaaf9552a00be5d3932013e71fe72700
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murkel Dellienof Murkel Dellien, Lars Goran Verwerft
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Murkel Dellien | 75c | 7,852$5,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.54 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 26c | 4,432$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.26 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 24c | 2,527$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.46 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Lars Goran Verwerft | 11c | 560.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Murkel Dellien | 76c | 478.65$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Murkel Dellien | 74c | 382.36$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Murkel Dellien | 76c | 260$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Lars Goran Verwerft | 28c | 247.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Murkel Dellien | 76c | 240$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 20c | 182.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Murkel Dellien | 76c | 157.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Murkel Dellien | 76c | 157.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 30c | 157.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 12c | 133.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Murkel Dellien | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Lars Goran Verwerft | 20c | 110.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Lars Goran Verwerft | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…697abacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 34c | 73.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Lars Goran Verwerft | 17c | 69.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 33c | 65.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 20c | 55.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Murkel Dellien | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Murkel Dellien | 73c | 38.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Murkel Dellien | 79c | 35.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Lars Goran Verwerft | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…4b02backed Murkel Dellien | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Murkel Dellien | 74c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Murkel Dellien | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…6767backed Murkel Dellien | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Murkel Dellien | 76c | 13.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Murkel Dellien | 76c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.