MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c3ef5df4192b1639db9b56ad59f7ef4a645a04d3785e7a700fb93624cd69abe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Pirates, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11fb…3561backed Cardinals | 62c | 34,350$21,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,053.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…a20ebacked Pirates | 38c | 34,350$13,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,053 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pirates | 11c | 7,506$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.61 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Pirates | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cardinals | 63c | 1,571$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.43 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cardinals | 61c | 1,442$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.88 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Pirates | 24c | 1,050$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Cardinals | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 61c | 602.25$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.88 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Pirates | 35c | 524.31$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.75 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Pirates | 20c | 495.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cardinals | 62c | 457.78$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Pirates | 11c | 351.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cardinals | 61c | 350$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Pirates | 37c | 223.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cardinals | 74c | 198.97$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Pirates | 8c | 167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pirates | 37c | 119.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cardinals | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cardinals | 78c | 95.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Pirates | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Cardinals | 63c | 88.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Pirates | 39c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cardinals | 63c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cardinals | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cardinals | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Cardinals | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cardinals | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Cardinals | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.