Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c71220d25228ce018affd9043cd4a6a565077a2846a4761c6208117c7fc339e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,461 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 600$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 17c | 262.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1280…05a7backed Yes | 41c | 246.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 166.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 75c | 147.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed No | 72c | 138.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed No | 79c | 138.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 131.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 50c | 99.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 77.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed Yes | 42c | 70.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 39c | 69.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 69.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 28c | 63.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…fbb4backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 46.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 44c | 45.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 38.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 36.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked No | 63c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 54c | 20.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…ea62backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.