CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs AaB esport (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c955b018698cd2604053ea4b1e1dffb39bd02d3a73255a4018238427196d51e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FORZE Reloadof FORZE Reload, AaB esport
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed AaB esport | 65c | 10,000$6,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,478.11 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cb…2badbacked AaB esport | 76c | 3,500$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AaB esport | 46c | 1,369$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.13 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed FORZE Reload | 63c | 1,294$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.65 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…1681backed AaB esport | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked FORZE Reload | 67c | 828.52$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.56 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FORZE Reload | 37c | 816.75$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.2 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed AaB esport | 63c | 731.67$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.98 | 211 | 37.4%79 W · 132 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked AaB esport | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 101 | 11.9%12 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed AaB esport | 41c | 665.57$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…de95backed AaB esport | 63c | 531.14$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked FORZE Reload | 37c | 450.45$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed AaB esport | 51c | 258.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed AaB esport | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…b8bbbacked AaB esport | 65c | 220$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed FORZE Reload | 64c | 195.45$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…45b9backed AaB esport | 33c | 168.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked AaB esport | 74c | 157.84$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2d…dd1ebacked AaB esport | 68c | 153.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 399 | 70.7%282 W · 117 L | +38.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed FORZE Reload | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked FORZE Reload | 37c | 137.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked FORZE Reload | 43c | 110$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed FORZE Reload | 79c | 93.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…7a59backed FORZE Reload | 62c | 91.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9f…7482backed AaB esport | 44c | 84.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed FORZE Reload | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a3…0918backed FORZE Reload | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed FORZE Reload | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe7…40ddbacked FORZE Reload | 33c | 45.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed FORZE Reload | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed AaB esport | 60c | 39.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…571ebacked AaB esport | 59c | 36.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…ca76backed AaB esport | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…e40bbacked AaB esport | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…e152backed FORZE Reload | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked FORZE Reload | 47c | 26.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…e30ebacked AaB esport | 79c | 18.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c22…12c4backed FORZE Reload | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs AaB esport (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs AaB esport - Map 2 WinnerFORZE Reload won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.