MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ca8f99581d12cc6224f63913de78c3bead738a34b28d6534700f855051b8ba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 56c | 7,372$4,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,103.28 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 4,999$2,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,798.04 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…cf21backed Under | 58c | 3,335$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 2,343$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.25 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 42c | 2,220$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.39 | 1,361 | 50.8%691 W · 670 L | +13.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 1,831$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.71 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 56c | 1,000$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 620 | 52.7%327 W · 293 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 56c | 751.14$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.5 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 31c | 538.73$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.47 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 50c | 443.16$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.58 | 302 | 51%154 W · 148 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 317.2$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.74 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 78c | 296.04$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6c…0b46backed Over | 40c | 286.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,452 | 49.9%725 W · 727 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 170.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 5,240 | 56.8%2,974 W · 2,266 L | +130.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 156.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 58c | 122.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 58c | 107.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 58c | 100.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 50c | 89.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 41c | 70.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1,377 | 54.2%747 W · 630 L | +16.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 73c | 64.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…616dbacked Under | 75c | 63.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…e6bbbacked Under | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 50c | 56.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 53c | 53.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 1,044 | 48.9%511 W · 533 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 58c | 38.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 51c | 35.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2,597 | 61.5%1,596 W · 1,001 L | +72.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Under | 58c | 32.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 50c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 50c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 50c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 50c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 50c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 50c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 50c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 50c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 26.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Over | 56c | 23.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 56c | 23.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 56c | 23.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 55c | 21.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 3,231 | 51.2%1,655 W · 1,576 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Under | 59c | 18.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 61c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.