MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cb7fc3bd52d7ea0f17d187296bd25e12cba35eff48bd01b9f0f331f883f5c95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 45c | 1,058$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.18 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 55c | 985.15$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Under | 57c | 514.11$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.51 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 483.32$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.33 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 47c | 474.45$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.91 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 378.49$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.83 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 349.21$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 42c | 256.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 48c | 147.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 54c | 109$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 48c | 83.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 57.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 55c | 44.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 55c | 39.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 51c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 52c | 27.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…f0c4backed Under | 53c | 20.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago CubsNo won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.