MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2e3d1f8856169e9b9e83603bbd7eef840edb7606b0fdd3001a4e5e45bd062c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 5,505$3,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,182.7 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,643$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,026$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.13 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 991.75$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 714.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.35 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 541.8$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.57 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 492.55$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.07 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 441.45$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.38 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 433.25$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.62 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 348.83$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.32 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 287.22$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 284.66$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 281.54$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.29 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 216.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 212.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 148$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 140.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 125$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 117.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 87.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 69.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 59.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 55.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 52.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…59e2backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 52.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 44.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 43.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 41.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 39.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 39.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 35.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 31.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 27.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 25.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…5f0dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 18.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.