MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cb846f55051b84d1f439fcdf82c70cf4404e22a7f052452196a3df872a75862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Under | 62c | 11,626$7,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,213.92 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 36c | 6,733$2,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,309.37 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 2,004$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 42c | 1,002$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.43 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 42c | 755.5$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.03 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 36c | 316.67$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.67 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 36c | 287$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 36c | 175.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.3 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8950…5c28backed Under | 57c | 121.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 109.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…d6e9backed Under | 68c | 88.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 36c | 82.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Over | 36c | 78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Under | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 37c | 55.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 36c | 52.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed Under | 56c | 51.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…2896backed Under | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 37.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 46c | 28.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Under | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis CardinalsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.