MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x818b94bd5608c4864382c837ea850b6d3aabf21d8a9136062456f041f51cebbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 25,783$10,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,564.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 66c | 18,669$12,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,325.79 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 11,807$5,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,708.12 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 4,334$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 4,155$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 44c | 3,338$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.98 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c6…291ebacked Over | 57c | 1,082$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.41 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 32c | 624.08$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.38 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…bed8backed Over | 40c | 501.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.46 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 30c | 321.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 33c | 282.04$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.58 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 247.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Over | 31c | 232.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.37 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Under | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 71c | 192.13$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 72c | 188.91$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 26c | 134.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Under | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 52c | 126.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 39c | 118.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…3f2cbacked Over | 31c | 114$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2b48backed Under | 71c | 113$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 44c | 109.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Over | 13c | 105.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +187%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Under | 70c | 102.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…9b78backed Under | 50c | 99.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 30c | 99.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Under | 34c | 99.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Under | 70c | 97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 62c | 95.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 19c | 93.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 34c | 75.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 67.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 68c | 67.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 68c | 66.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 41c | 65.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 69c | 58.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Over | 32c | 54.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…db95backed Over | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 49c | 51.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked Over | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 242 | 52.9%128 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Under | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…705fbacked Over | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 50c | 48.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 62c | 48.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 62c | 47.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 36c | 43.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…7e2bbacked Under | 68c | 42.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 59c | 39.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 69c | 38.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 52c | 38.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…627dbacked Under | 55c | 36.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Over | 32c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…06b3backed Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 33c | 32.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 53c | 31.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…5836backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 37c | 29.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 63c | 29.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…6279backed Under | 69c | 28.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Under | 67c | 21.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…30f7backed Under | 67c | 21.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df9…e997backed Under | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 61c | 19.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis CardinalsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.