MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61c154bb9ab416b729230895155cecabc83494df95098102322446eb37da9284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 46c | 1,124$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.62 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 47c | 858.17$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.3 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 56c | 808.8$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 62c | 585.01$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.77 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…e67bbacked No | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 52c | 483.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 347 | 51%177 W · 170 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 57c | 441.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 44c | 376.28$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.88 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…f59bbacked Yes | 30c | 316.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 53c | 204$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed No | 50c | 199.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 49c | 190$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 48c | 188.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 182 | 52.2%95 W · 87 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked No | 61c | 163.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed No | 54c | 113.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 198 | 54.5%108 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed No | 57c | 113.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 48c | 91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 47c | 65.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…4052backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 52c | 52.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…a6e1backed No | 19c | 52.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 53c | 45.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…f127backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…8d08backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed No | 56c | 31.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…1f67backed No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ec…3cd6backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b32…9bf8backed Yes | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…e296backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…4129backed No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinalsthis page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis CardinalsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.