TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Supernova vs Citadel Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Supernovaof Supernova, Citadel Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,955

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,017 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x567e…e8fbbacked Citadel Gaming44c1,540$679 inLost-$679.3611035.5%39 W · 71 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Supernova75c1,459$1,099 inWon+$359.511,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked Citadel Gaming52c522.73$272 inLost-$271.7263352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Citadel Gaming35c400$140 inLost-$14037039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aef…5ab9backed Supernova22c400$88 inWon+$31210844.4%48 W · 60 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Supernova50c379.98$192 inWon+$188.1869756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Supernova61c377.74$229 inWon+$149.1159952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Citadel Gaming18c352.33$63 inLost-$62.6757222.7%130 W · 442 L-48.9wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Supernova50c300$150 inWon+$15043642.4%185 W · 251 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Supernova55c283.31$157 inWon+$126.661,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Citadel Gaming12c272$34 inLost-$33.6833124.2%80 W · 251 L-33.2wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Citadel Gaming13c250$33 inLost-$32.514032.1%45 W · 95 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Citadel Gaming17c195$33 inLost-$33.1542124.7%104 W · 317 L-51.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Citadel Gaming41c190.55$78 inLost-$78.451,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x917d…9429backed Citadel Gaming13c188$24 inLost-$24.442931%9 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Supernova59c169.99$100 inWon+$69.756341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Supernova56c157.6$89 inWon+$68.721,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd89c…2d1fbacked Supernova66c150.97$100 inWon+$50.9718159.1%107 W · 74 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed Citadel Gaming45c107.59$48 inLost-$48.2570057.3%401 W · 299 L+36.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Citadel Gaming70c99.99$70 inLost-$69.944129.5%130 W · 311 L-45.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-48%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Citadel Gaming17c95$16 inLost-$16.3143233.8%146 W · 286 L-20.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Citadel Gaming35c91.07$32 inLost-$31.862,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc161…bd88backed Citadel Gaming45c83.8$38 inLost-$37.7173851.5%380 W · 358 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Citadel Gaming41c80$33 inLost-$32.81,24134.7%431 W · 810 L-2.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Citadel Gaming55c74.04$41 inLost-$40.741,27057%724 W · 546 L+45.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Citadel Gaming52c73.59$38 inLost-$38.0223348.1%112 W · 121 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x137f…2521backed Supernova72c66.33$47 inWon+$18.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Citadel Gaming18c60$11 inLost-$10.872637.7%274 W · 452 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4e…5973backed Citadel Gaming42c59.74$25 inLost-$2555744%245 W · 312 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf006…bf1ebacked Citadel Gaming45c55.56$25 inLost-$2569247%325 W · 367 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c04…2c55backed Citadel Gaming44c40.91$18 inLost-$182213.6%3 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-65.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Citadel Gaming27c40.17$11 inLost-$10.9850549.3%249 W · 256 L+2.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Citadel Gaming47c39.37$18 inLost-$18.321,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Citadel Gaming28c36.33$10 inLost-$10.1782044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Citadel Gaming51c24.43$12 inLost-$12.4680832.9%266 W · 542 L-43.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a3a…f788backed Supernova53c20$11 inWon+$9.47837.2%29 W · 49 L-9.9wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Supernova55c20$11 inWon+$911248.2%54 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.