Lol · resolved market
LoL: Supernova vs Citadel Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbae69b1b791f097b57816e53127f6db5b8ab3b06e49960ffba6033597387bef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Citadel Gamingof Supernova, Citadel Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Supernova | 31c | 2,551$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.26 | 1,229 | 45.1%554 W · 675 L | +48.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Supernova | 45c | 1,508$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.11 | 697 | 56.5%394 W · 303 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Citadel Gaming | 60c | 1,085$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.8 | 599 | 52.8%316 W · 283 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Citadel Gaming | 39c | 945.98$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.05 | 1,630 | 40.1%654 W · 976 L | +48.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…f681backed Citadel Gaming | 36c | 785.71$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 370 | 39.5%146 W · 224 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Citadel Gaming | 42c | 704.81$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.81 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ff…a491backed Supernova | 42c | 654.16$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.75 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Citadel Gaming | 53c | 544.84$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.93 | 2,905 | 38.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L | -118.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed Supernova | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 862 | 51.3%442 W · 420 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…27eabacked Supernova | 24c | 500$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Supernova | 40c | 447.2$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.83 | 461 | 53.6%247 W · 214 L | -24.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Supernova | 42c | 412.74$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.49 | 820 | 44%361 W · 459 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Supernova | 48c | 398.1$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.73 | 505 | 49.3%249 W · 256 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Supernova | 25c | 396$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 376 | 33.5%126 W · 250 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Supernova | 69c | 360.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Supernova | 55c | 356.95$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.66 | 110 | 35.5%39 W · 71 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…ab7bbacked Citadel Gaming | 71c | 281.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 835 | 60.8%508 W · 327 L | +45.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Citadel Gaming | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 185 | 42.2%78 W · 107 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Supernova | 35c | 249.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…930fbacked Citadel Gaming | 41c | 175$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 1,216 | 44.4%540 W · 676 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…935ebacked Citadel Gaming | 50c | 173$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 134 | 33.6%45 W · 89 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Supernova | 23c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 140 | 32.1%45 W · 95 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Supernova | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Supernova | 23c | 137$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 421 | 24.7%104 W · 317 L | -51.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed Citadel Gaming | 49c | 123.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 557 | 44%245 W · 312 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…0c26backed Supernova | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +158.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Citadel Gaming | 42c | 112.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 742 | 50.5%375 W · 367 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked Citadel Gaming | 75c | 106.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Supernova | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 392 | 39%153 W · 239 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…5ab9backed Supernova | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Supernova | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 600 | 53.2%319 W · 281 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Citadel Gaming | 57c | 94.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 997 | 47.1%470 W · 527 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Supernova | 17c | 88.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | -33.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Supernova | 56c | 84.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 1,225 | 49.6%607 W · 618 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Citadel Gaming | 42c | 83.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Citadel Gaming | 45c | 79.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Supernova | 34c | 66.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Citadel Gaming | 47c | 61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed Citadel Gaming | 43c | 58.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 738 | 51.5%380 W · 358 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bf1ebacked Supernova | 48c | 53.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 692 | 47%325 W · 367 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Supernova | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 432 | 33.8%146 W · 286 L | -20.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Supernova | 26c | 48.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 572 | 22.7%130 W · 442 L | -48.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Supernova | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.7wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed Citadel Gaming | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…3421backed Citadel Gaming | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Citadel Gaming | 44c | 37.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 748 | 49.6%371 W · 377 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Citadel Gaming | 42c | 30.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 584 | 20.2%118 W · 466 L | -58.1wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Supernova | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…8319backed Citadel Gaming | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Supernova vs Citadel Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill?Yes won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Supernova vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group StageSupernova won
- LoL: Supernova vs Citadel Gaming - Game 1 WinnerSupernova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.