Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cc1f73a5fd22d9695b2ae8eb2cd93beed9d652da61f15b861301392d3269524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 441.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 72c | 373.72$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 344.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 303.68$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 228.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 226$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 75c | 214.51$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 174.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 157.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 148.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 30c | 148.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 144$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 70c | 136.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 74c | 133.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 111.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 107.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 107.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 101.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 27c | 75.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 73.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 72.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 71.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 34c | 68.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 38c | 62.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 63c | 53.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 30c | 51.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 44.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 28c | 40.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 36c | 39.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 31c | 37.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 37.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 69c | 28.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 28.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 27.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 25.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 23.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 74c | 22.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 71c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 16.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.