Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x055c8e5392297331c5b19c09f88ab8deb71c42c24ca4054785b443d6518575b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 47c | 1,079$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.56 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 72c | 953.56$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed No | 68c | 700$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.24 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 505.19$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.95 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 326$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 325$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.65 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 37c | 271.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.69 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 270$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 223.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 37c | 190$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 180.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 147.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 40c | 124$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 53c | 115.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 62c | 95.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 88.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 53c | 84.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 58c | 78.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 70.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 63c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 61.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 56.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 40c | 55.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 45.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 41.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 41.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 57c | 34.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 60c | 31.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 63c | 31.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…ac86backed Yes | 45c | 26.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 41c | 25.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 50c | 24.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 59c | 24.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 45c | 24.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 56c | 21.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 59c | 20.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…f3c2backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 19.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…529dbacked Yes | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 73c | 17.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.