Fifa International · resolved market
Will Russia win on 2025-10-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cc6f9e5f38f8de032b39b2d100b7ddfe0cb9755e8da5609e2f6129e26e2cede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83b9…2f2dbacked Yes | 61c | 445.76$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5776…cf86backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 42c | 299.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked No | 40c | 248.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 41c | 169$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Yes | 60c | 168.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +57%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…aa95backed Yes | 63c | 157.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 36c | 132.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 36c | 128.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…3c1dbacked Yes | 58c | 75.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd703…b62ebacked No | 39c | 74.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 42c | 63.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 24c | 56.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a49…a53bbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…2f7dbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff6…6fe8backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 58c | 40.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…6a7fbacked Yes | 62c | 34.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…e8fcbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…980fbacked Yes | 62c | 28.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…79f7backed Yes | 63c | 27.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…5468backed Yes | 63c | 22.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 58c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…1778backed Yes | 61c | 20.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…b27cbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…e528backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3a…d4d5backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia win on 2025-10-10?this page
- Will IR Iran win on 2025-10-10?No won
- Will Russia vs. IR Iran end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.