Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d18e5b5bca6ea5297f0b5304ab9ce02991b1dce04811db756f6bb3ca23ec5c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Lorientof Toulouse FC, FC Lorient
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,669 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fc9…df11backed FC Lorient | 76c | 918.35$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…d8d8backed Toulouse FC | 24c | 918.35$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed FC Lorient | 74c | 850.92$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toulouse FC | 26c | 550.93$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FC Lorient | 72c | 379.61$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Toulouse FC | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Toulouse FC | 26c | 249.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Toulouse FC | 25c | 209.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Toulouse FC | 26c | 204$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Toulouse FC | 25c | 138.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Toulouse FC | 25c | 84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…a1d4backed Toulouse FC | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…d01abacked FC Lorient | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc2…3ae8backed FC Lorient | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked FC Lorient | 75c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b6…4359backed FC Lorient | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)this page
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.