Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80de4d35a494a9d094172745ba85bea3594d3bf4e2481740270c19c3c0bb0844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,862 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 7,584$4,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620.51 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 2,401$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.75 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 1,474$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.53 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 72c | 1,005$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.59 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 33c | 750$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 623.42$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 546.56$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.43 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2d…6f93backed Over | 32c | 450$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 33c | 307$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 28c | 246.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 67c | 244.1$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Under | 43c | 231.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 29c | 189$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 42c | 179.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 65c | 152.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 37c | 135.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…15b5backed Over | 20c | 118.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…77bfbacked Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0454…58f4backed Over | 20c | 101.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Under | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…8cf8backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 71c | 88.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 27c | 85.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d88fbacked Over | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 38c | 77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…f958backed Under | 72c | 73.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…25e4backed Over | 19c | 67.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…0b4abacked Over | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 62c | 65.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 27c | 65.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 52.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 43.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…d33ebacked Over | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 62c | 39.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…1331backed Over | 60c | 33.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 76c | 27.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Under | 80c | 23.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde09…8ac7backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…c640backed Over | 72c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 77c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.