Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb05639b31b5ecce5e623ad0d71cc36256121d769036d7d1608d1b4315de84948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,374 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 7,993$3,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,596.9 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 6,891$4,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.99 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28d…d5ccbacked Over | 47c | 3,739$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Under | 55c | 3,205$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 55c | 2,500$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 53c | 2,029$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.74 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 36c | 1,250$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.04 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 760.94$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.84 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 31c | 641.61$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.05 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 47c | 638.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 563.23$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.12 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 54c | 556$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.76 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…132abacked Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked Under | 57c | 307.52$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c2…4901backed Over | 27c | 301.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 60c | 295$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 55c | 290.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 256.5$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 53c | 242$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 43c | 232.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 218.13$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…e7e2backed Over | 47c | 202.3$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 25c | 196.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…3760backed Over | 46c | 186.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…0912backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 53c | 166.87$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Over | 47c | 151.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 66c | 134.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Over | 45c | 95.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 55c | 90.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd985…1125backed Under | 61c | 68.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 56c | 64.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 55c | 64.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 53c | 63.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 54c | 53.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 46c | 48.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 59c | 47.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…9018backed Over | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 33.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 71c | 22.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked Under | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.