Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d417eccfc026bbed6f5adb1cad775999b31c1fbe85e930f0df54244db470e5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,697 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…44e9backed Yes | 45c | 1,885$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7310…4a5bbacked No | 55c | 1,885$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…4e2dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,880$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f44…135cbacked No | 54c | 1,880$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…e18bbacked No | 55c | 1,823$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f515backed Yes | 45c | 1,823$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x214a…e09cbacked No | 55c | 1,811$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…7501backed Yes | 45c | 1,811$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 40c | 1,482$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.19 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 62c | 1,084$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.76 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…c587backed Yes | 42c | 530$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked No | 61c | 449.92$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.09 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 420.04$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 417.21$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 32c | 294.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 16c | 291.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 23c | 266.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 5c | 197.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 51c | 197.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 168.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 40c | 161.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4614…3ed4backed Yes | 42c | 156.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 153.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 74c | 153.52$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 150.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…f6c2backed Yes | 44c | 147.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 146$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 144.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b40…8be4backed Yes | 37c | 144$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 40c | 135.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 58c | 135.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 56c | 134.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 133.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 131.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 38c | 131.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 131.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 59c | 126$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 123.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f5…d878backed Yes | 62c | 123.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb7…a911backed Yes | 43c | 122$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 120.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked No | 18c | 120.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 64c | 113.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 35c | 113.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 49c | 110.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 69c | 106.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eae…3fd6backed No | 21c | 106.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked No | 44c | 106.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 102.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 99.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 50c | 97.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 43c | 95.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed No | 44c | 92.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 58c | 89.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 55c | 89.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 53c | 81.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 59c | 79.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 63c | 77.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 57c | 75.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 71.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ab…a8dcbacked No | 57c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 53c | 67.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 41c | 67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b7…17ccbacked No | 56c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 78c | 61.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6319…770abacked No | 61c | 57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 62c | 56.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 36c | 55.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 53.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…140abacked No | 56c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…a1b4backed No | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 52c | 49.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 49.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 44c | 47.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 67c | 46.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244d…cd8fbacked No | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…a3aabacked No | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 44c | 45.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed No | 40c | 44.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 25c | 42.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…1742backed No | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked No | 24c | 41.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.