TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,744 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e38…b4cbbacked Yes17c4,262$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No77c1,198$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.4832157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3877…fbf1backed Yes37c1,169$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.73622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes6c523.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.824,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes3c442.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1646423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ea…c587backed No64c390$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.881070%7 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+54.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes35c356.4$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.171,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes37c321.5$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1938840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c314.08$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No72c277.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No62c268.09$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No67c253.76$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.633,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes11c249.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.761,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c231.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.891,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0a…364bbacked Yes16c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No69c192.42$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.591,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c157.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.967,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No64c156$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7254143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes27c153.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.771,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c149.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes30c146$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.196,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe211…c34fbacked Yes39c134.25$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.84959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes37c133.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.111513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x97f5…d878backed Yes28c122.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes27c119.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7565625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes13c116.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c110.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.177,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes13c108.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8145127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed Yes37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e68…7477backed No74c107.45$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.951163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+43.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c105.04$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.538,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4025029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes38c99.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3811126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No62c99.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9912540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No75c97.48$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes33c93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.071,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No63c92.92$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.461,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No65c90.06$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.381,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes39c76.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No62c76.22$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.863,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes27c75.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5311436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c69.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes38c63.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.521833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x215b…1aa6backed No64c62.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.64966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed No71c60.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.166358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.868239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d29…c502backed Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214261.9%26 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c9f…7af2backed Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c59.77$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes37c55.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5513523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c6…aa26backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+110.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.511619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No64c49.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8211878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes30c46.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7957232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes33c46.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.420025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No62c45.51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.441,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes41c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.459434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed No63c42.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6927463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No65c38.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.41,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes43c37.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1633839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No76c37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.836057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes39c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.881029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b4…78c9backed No65c34.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.126755.2%37 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes37c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8221919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae4…255dbacked No65c30.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.691877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes39c30.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5818740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed No62c29.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1713122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e76…65bdbacked No70c27.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.233141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No62c25.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6524966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3352…f674backed Yes40c25.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x159b…20efbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70fc…8fb5backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed No75c24.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0419260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed No62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.193030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x530f…424ebacked No77c24.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.43862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No70c21.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.521,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No60c18.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3676371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No66c16.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6327771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe466…1a58backed No63c16.42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.082759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x762d…872abacked No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.632944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6329558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.