Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d47b7191c399b459f5415c167a5264bd6b26b48e433f67268471e2f166465fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3f6…5078backed No | 10c | 713.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 79c | 578.25$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 13c | 492.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 462.35$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked No | 22c | 413.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 79c | 298.95$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 73c | 232.51$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 76c | 181.58$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.68 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 59c | 176.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 168.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 146.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 145.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 22c | 114.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 27c | 102.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 47c | 102.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 101.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 25c | 95.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f60…4127backed Yes | 79c | 94.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1843…affabacked Yes | 21c | 85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…5d37backed Yes | 18c | 84.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 60c | 67.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 51c | 64.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 43c | 63.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 77c | 63.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 65c | 53.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21cc…6fcabacked Yes | 19c | 53.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +166.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 53c | 45.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 56c | 44.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 73c | 44.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 32c | 41.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed Yes | 42c | 39.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 37.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Yes | 41c | 32.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 79c | 30.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 65c | 28.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 71c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 78c | 25.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 22.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…767ebacked No | 70c | 22.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…3081backed Yes | 49c | 21.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 18.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…4d9abacked No | 67c | 15.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.