MLB · resolved market
CHC Cubs vs. OAK Athletics March 31
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d7539dd462fe9c61dd983b6f2a46213dd4c70fd6ace72523239849e79d764e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Cubs, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49d0…8503backed Athletics | 44c | 5,700$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.3 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cubs | 56c | 5,630$3,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,477.2 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Athletics | 43c | 720$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 27c | 710.01$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Cubs | 57c | 704.21$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.81 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cubs | 57c | 551.2$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.73 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Athletics | 18c | 520$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cubs | 58c | 413.79$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.79 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Athletics | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Athletics | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Athletics | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Athletics | 42c | 92.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cubs | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Athletics | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cubs | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Cubs | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Athletics | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cubs | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Cubs | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Athletics | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CHC Cubs vs. OAK Athletics March 31this page
- ATL Braves vs. LAD Dodgers March 31Dodgers won
- BOS Red Sox vs. BAL Orioles March 31Orioles won
- CLE Guardians vs. SD Padres March 31Padres won
- COL Rockies vs. PHI Phillies March 31Philies won
- DET Tigers vs. SEA Mariners March 31Tigers won
- KC Royals vs. MIL Brewers March 31Royals won
- LAA Angels vs. STL Cardinals March 31Angels won
- MIN Twins vs. CWS White Sox March 31White Sox won
- NYM Mets vs. MIA Marlins March 31Mets won
- PIT Pirates vs. TB Rays March 31Rays won
- SF Giants vs. HOU Astros March 31Giants won
- TEX Rangers vs. CIN Reds March 31Reds won
- WSH Nationals vs. TOR Blue Jays March 31Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.