MLB · resolved market
BOS Red Sox vs. BAL Orioles March 31
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x356dd834b504e16f072ef90a490cc7c88b1e87278da07cfe632dbb5cd889a2ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oriolesof Red Sox, Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Orioles | 59c | 6,152$3,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.89 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Red Sox | 41c | 4,380$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.96 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Sox | 36c | 2,067$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Red Sox | 42c | 1,453$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.26 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Red Sox | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Orioles | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Orioles | 59c | 256.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox | 44c | 229$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Orioles | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Orioles | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Red Sox | 41c | 147.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Orioles | 58c | 137.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…0e4bbacked Red Sox | 41c | 131.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 56c | 119.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Orioles | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Red Sox | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Red Sox | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Red Sox | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…9c51backed Orioles | 59c | 70.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Orioles | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Red Sox | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Orioles | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1267…6a31backed Orioles | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BOS Red Sox vs. BAL Orioles March 31this page
- ATL Braves vs. LAD Dodgers March 31Dodgers won
- CHC Cubs vs. OAK Athletics March 31Cubs won
- CLE Guardians vs. SD Padres March 31Padres won
- COL Rockies vs. PHI Phillies March 31Philies won
- DET Tigers vs. SEA Mariners March 31Tigers won
- KC Royals vs. MIL Brewers March 31Royals won
- LAA Angels vs. STL Cardinals March 31Angels won
- MIN Twins vs. CWS White Sox March 31White Sox won
- NYM Mets vs. MIA Marlins March 31Mets won
- PIT Pirates vs. TB Rays March 31Rays won
- SF Giants vs. HOU Astros March 31Giants won
- TEX Rangers vs. CIN Reds March 31Reds won
- WSH Nationals vs. TOR Blue Jays March 31Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.