MLB · resolved market
NYM Mets vs. MIA Marlins March 31
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d8fc258f7a95d145d6a7172b272007aa079231970e9f35243fb351d1bb29265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metsof Mets, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Mets | 64c | 6,999$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.8 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Marlins | 36c | 5,533$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.91 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 34c | 4,673$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.95 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…8503backed Mets | 66c | 4,547$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.18 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb928…5fd7backed Marlins | 38c | 3,131$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marlins | 44c | 1,993$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.16 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Marlins | 38c | 800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Marlins | 34c | 591.34$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.05 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Mets | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mets | 62c | 451.5$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.78 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Marlins | 41c | 411.11$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 44c | 400$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Marlins | 36c | 332.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Mets | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Mets | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…1fc9backed Marlins | 39c | 300$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Marlins | 35c | 228$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mets | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Mets | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Mets | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mets | 66c | 148.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mets | 65c | 114$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Mets | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Mets | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Marlins | 45c | 86.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 182 | 36.3%66 W · 116 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mets | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed Mets | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Marlins | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Mets | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mets | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 39c | 37.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Marlins | 58c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NYM Mets vs. MIA Marlins March 31this page
- ATL Braves vs. LAD Dodgers March 31Dodgers won
- BOS Red Sox vs. BAL Orioles March 31Orioles won
- CHC Cubs vs. OAK Athletics March 31Cubs won
- CLE Guardians vs. SD Padres March 31Padres won
- COL Rockies vs. PHI Phillies March 31Philies won
- DET Tigers vs. SEA Mariners March 31Tigers won
- KC Royals vs. MIL Brewers March 31Royals won
- LAA Angels vs. STL Cardinals March 31Angels won
- MIN Twins vs. CWS White Sox March 31White Sox won
- PIT Pirates vs. TB Rays March 31Rays won
- SF Giants vs. HOU Astros March 31Giants won
- TEX Rangers vs. CIN Reds March 31Reds won
- WSH Nationals vs. TOR Blue Jays March 31Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.