Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d7ad68a0536672a34ca70de755f0704dc7a2ff9dad94837f4cc7e9acec1cb2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 460.93$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 441.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 426.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.86 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 415.78$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 10c | 339.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.75 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 38c | 279.87$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.66 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 233.64$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 224.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 205.1$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 68c | 180.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 140.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 139.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.08 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…56ccbacked No | 59c | 130.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 26c | 126.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 27c | 118.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 114.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 41c | 109.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…5b82backed Yes | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +205%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 103.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 31c | 102.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 41c | 101.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 30c | 99.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed Yes | 26c | 97.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…1502backed No | 78c | 96.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 23c | 96.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 65c | 94.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 88.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 40c | 71.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed Yes | 39c | 64.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 16c | 61.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 70c | 57.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 20c | 55.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 27c | 50.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 59c | 48.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 33c | 47.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 77c | 36.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 76c | 36.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 74c | 32.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 78c | 31.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 40c | 29.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 50c | 27.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 69c | 25.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 68c | 23.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 23.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed Yes | 61c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 79c | 20.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 18.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.