TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on April 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf882…a45abacked Yes0c4,068$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.741145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes55c1,780$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.8937056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes54c1,494$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.774,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No73c1,344$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.851,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No70c677.19$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.2854043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No57c622.79$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.551,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No26c499.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.999919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes34c488.23$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.556,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No45c480.9$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.362,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes50c472.92$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.471,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes40c405.61$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.574,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c395.04$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c368.72$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes54c364.37$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5519047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes35c336.09$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.031,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes44c332.89$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5221436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb697…9c56backed No38c329.76$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4710924.8%27 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No37c327.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.7690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes35c291.73$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.288,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes42c283.56$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.421,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes27c275.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.942,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c255.62$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.147,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No65c248.53$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1511874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes57c234.03$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5449547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes40c218.36$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8298738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc205…acaabacked Yes37c200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes45c194.88$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.491,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes30c187.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.849626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes33c180.15$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0434618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No57c178.51$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7619152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes24c172.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.627,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes46c170.9$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7821235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No61c170.82$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.862,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes40c157.9$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.881,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No54c142.33$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.161,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes38c134.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.861,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No54c132.02$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.948042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes23c130.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2718837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9a…8e18backed No47c129.72$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.362642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…75fabacked Yes28c125.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.546918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed No78c125.51$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.723043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes41c114.73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b7…b30abacked Yes52c111.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.055474.1%40 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66cb…56ccbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes60c99.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.51752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No69c98.75$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3819753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1dc1…2496backed Yes32c98.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.583129%9 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c96.85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No37c95.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8534617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No54c92.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No68c85.18$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2612154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked No39c83.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.91,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No66c80.44$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.448969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x359a…c74cbacked No48c79.26$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No56c77.8$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2330859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No48c73.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.595735.1%20 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No64c73.23$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes46c73.13$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5113930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes44c72.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3633535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes51c72.56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.087841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes55c71.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.681,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes39c70.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7326344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes66c69.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4634067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No62c66.78$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2117066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes48c66.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2329640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No57c66.12$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4441460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes47c64.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.386833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No39c63.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.142,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No61c62.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3610569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No67c62.14$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No39c61.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4333450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c60.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.39,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No72c60.88$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.045981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.681029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes48c59.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4449941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No57c55.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0833567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes51c55.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.541560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No68c54.01$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.279176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c52.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2566141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes37c51.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.739344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes66c49.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.422638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes24c49.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7825549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes45c49.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.249142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No35c48.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.81,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No62c47.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.322675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No68c46.25$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8715954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes38c45.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.199047.8%43 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes48c45.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.891,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No61c44.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5948672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3663…d13ebacked Yes45c44.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.131915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-63.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbd3f…2d5fbacked Yes62c43.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.83911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick45cpaid-73.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No58c41.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.511,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No54c40.93$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.992,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes32c40.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9241733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9693…bc1cbacked No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882f…5967backed Yes28c39.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.183414.7%5 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-61.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.