Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5714d0c7f8d5a3bb86a8d94aeeb46252b464ede33c2d0bc0c22c74bb9e9d9922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf882…a45abacked Yes | 0c | 4,068$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,780$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.89 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,494$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 73c | 1,344$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.85 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 70c | 677.19$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.28 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 57c | 622.79$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.55 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 26c | 499.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.99 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 488.23$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 45c | 480.9$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.36 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 50c | 472.92$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.47 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 405.61$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 395.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 368.72$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 54c | 364.37$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.55 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 336.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 44c | 332.89$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 38c | 329.76$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.47 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 37c | 327.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.76 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 291.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 42c | 283.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 275.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 255.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 65c | 248.53$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 57c | 234.03$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.54 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 40c | 218.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…acaabacked Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 45c | 194.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 30c | 187.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 33c | 180.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 57c | 178.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 172.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 46c | 170.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 170.82$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 40c | 157.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 54c | 142.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 134.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 54c | 132.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 23c | 130.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed No | 47c | 129.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 28c | 125.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed No | 78c | 125.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 114.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked Yes | 52c | 111.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…56ccbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 69c | 98.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 32c | 98.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 96.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 37c | 95.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 92.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 68c | 85.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 39c | 83.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 66c | 80.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…c74cbacked No | 48c | 79.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 56c | 77.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 48c | 73.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 64c | 73.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 46c | 73.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 44c | 72.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 51c | 72.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 55c | 71.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 39c | 70.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 66c | 69.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 62c | 66.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 48c | 66.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 57c | 66.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 47c | 64.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 63.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 61c | 62.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 62.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 39c | 61.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 60.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 72c | 60.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 48c | 59.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 57c | 55.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 51c | 55.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 68c | 54.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 52.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 37c | 51.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 66c | 49.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 24c | 49.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 45c | 49.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 35c | 48.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 62c | 47.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 68c | 46.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 38c | 45.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 48c | 45.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 61c | 44.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…d13ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…2d5fbacked Yes | 62c | 43.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 41.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 54c | 40.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 40.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…bc1cbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 28c | 39.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.