TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,427 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes24c1,606$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.264,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes33c696.82$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.348,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c390.11$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No77c367.13$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.032,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c300.16$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes32c299.32$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.371,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes28c227.45$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.821436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c213.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.767,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No75c195.28$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.822,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes33c194.76$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.11,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No57c173.19$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.619152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c147.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.992,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes20c143.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No78c140.06$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b9…b865backed Yes28c132.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No78c124.3$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2826566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c123.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.296,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes23c115.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes36c112.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3520835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes29c112.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6413930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes19c111.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes26c107.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.789344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207542.7%32 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No71c96.22$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2819753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No64c91.56$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6156265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes21c90.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0846824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes26c88.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.822,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes21c86.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4355538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes40c83.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.541,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No80c83.1$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9217066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No79c83$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0716575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes27c82.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.511,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes16c82.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.892028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c78.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes36c77.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0949941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.566141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes38c74.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.261,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No67c70.7$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.351,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No71c67.02$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4427167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x726c…e6f0backed No61c65.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.57936.7%29 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No76c64.41$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.625,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes25c61.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.496833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No72c54.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5141460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No76c52.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9297570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes23c51.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.969,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c51.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.179,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c50.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No74c49.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.148672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c6…40babacked No59c48.51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes47c47.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.011,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes26c45.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7922028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb4…695fbacked No76c42.86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.265773.7%42 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf859…0866backed No78c40.55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.051376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes36c39.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No65c37.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2920353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c1…51f6backed Yes41c35.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.511827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No70c34.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.211,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No66c33.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4715954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5c…1d38backed No77c31.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.472576%19 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes33c31.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3866944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No78c31.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8551762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf4…e7c2backed No66c29.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…6063backed Yes39c28.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.249322.6%21 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedc0…ef70backed No54c26.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.193658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No76c25.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.169779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2572466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c23.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.883,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No60c22.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.022,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c21.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.944,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x131d…2a50backed No77c21.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7710335.9%37 W · 66 L-15.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xef45…8a4dbacked No79c21.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.491872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No57c20.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.657038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8171…66a5backed No71c19.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.724526.7%12 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…9b20backed No78c18.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.231883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ecb…e234backed No67c18.78$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick72cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6a…bc77backed No80c18.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.741172.7%8 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4453…2b6bbacked No68c17.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4113081.5%106 W · 24 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d16…fb11backed No76c16.61$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No74c16.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.221,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2598…17dfbacked No69c16.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.061675%12 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No73c15.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.257777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No70c15.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.664,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd72d…9e9ebacked No75c15.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.953987.2%34 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa514…7b70backed No75c15.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.951369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No77c14.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3931868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.