Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d8330568f2239a328273fc56319b1cedbbf13423a5ebdf6f12174c56bd6fb53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois Fighting Illiniof Illinois Fighting Illini, USC Trojans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 523.37$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.37 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 73c | 279.94$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 277.02$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.13 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed USC Trojans | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1487…d443backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 204$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed USC Trojans | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed USC Trojans | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…3d9dbacked USC Trojans | 48c | 192.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 190.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 175.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed USC Trojans | 49c | 143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed USC Trojans | 47c | 128.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed USC Trojans | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed USC Trojans | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed USC Trojans | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 78.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 56c | 64.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…6ab9backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed USC Trojans | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 28.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 21.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)this page
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC TrojansIllinois Fighting Illini won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans: O/U 149.5Over won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans: O/U 150.5Over won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans: O/U 151.5Over won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans: O/U 152.5Over won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-9.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.