Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x090907e051935f8c676a174acf96986ccb81e4c91f707e815c65d382729684ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois Fighting Illiniof Illinois Fighting Illini, USC Trojans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked USC Trojans | 19c | 33,774$6,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,475.96 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…959abacked USC Trojans | 19c | 10,608$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked USC Trojans | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed USC Trojans | 19c | 9,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ba…f893backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 80c | 7,000$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed USC Trojans | 20c | 6,327$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.61 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…68a0backed USC Trojans | 20c | 5,407$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed USC Trojans | 21c | 5,328$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.97 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed USC Trojans | 14c | 4,837$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.28 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed USC Trojans | 19c | 3,684$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked USC Trojans | 19c | 3,322$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.18 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked USC Trojans | 18c | 2,800$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.92 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed USC Trojans | 19c | 1,759$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.21 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed USC Trojans | 19c | 1,756$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.64 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 80c | 1,266$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.73 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…ad34backed USC Trojans | 16c | 1,224$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.63 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed USC Trojans | 18c | 1,141$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.3 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed USC Trojans | 19c | 1,067$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.76 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed USC Trojans | 5c | 731.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked USC Trojans | 19c | 631.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked USC Trojans | 13c | 529.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 493 | 45.4%224 W · 269 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…eec3backed USC Trojans | 19c | 527$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…d81abacked USC Trojans | 20c | 516.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 78c | 508$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked USC Trojans | 18c | 504.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed USC Trojans | 19c | 499.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed USC Trojans | 19c | 421.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…d196backed USC Trojans | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed USC Trojans | 18c | 337.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c2…940fbacked USC Trojans | 5c | 334.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed USC Trojans | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked USC Trojans | 19c | 299.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…6a3abacked USC Trojans | 19c | 255.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed USC Trojans | 19c | 212$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 80c | 207.02$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked USC Trojans | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed USC Trojans | 14c | 175.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…3d9dbacked USC Trojans | 19c | 170$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked USC Trojans | 19c | 158$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed USC Trojans | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc35…dfd5backed USC Trojans | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…fb21backed USC Trojans | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…2b9cbacked USC Trojans | 19c | 124$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa280…2776backed USC Trojans | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…45a1backed USC Trojans | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb458…195ebacked USC Trojans | 19c | 112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…a817backed USC Trojans | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…0dd1backed USC Trojans | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked USC Trojans | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed USC Trojans | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked USC Trojans | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked USC Trojans | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked USC Trojans | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked USC Trojans | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…314cbacked USC Trojans | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…ae85backed USC Trojans | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed USC Trojans | 19c | 91.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1b…ea35backed USC Trojans | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed USC Trojans | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…6aa7backed USC Trojans | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 80c | 32.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…da16backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojansthis page
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans: O/U 149.5Over won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans: O/U 150.5Over won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans: O/U 151.5Over won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. USC Trojans: O/U 152.5Over won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-9.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.