Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d9e953d97671391e2a820ab83c102a900b38fe2a0550b0b50ea56f43b29281d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 73c | 2,055$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.15 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,934$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.27 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 45c | 1,711$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 1,269$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.11 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 58c | 854.93$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.1 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 744.48$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.62 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 46c | 500$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…8a29backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…6213backed Over | 30c | 459.93$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 79c | 393.41$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 37c | 337.62$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…b2f8backed Over | 60c | 334.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf9…f6bcbacked Under | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Over | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Over | 14c | 270$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 38c | 261.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 38c | 260.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 188.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 178.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 38c | 131.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 42c | 94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 50c | 55.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 62c | 31.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…4381backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…63d7backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Stade Brestois 29: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Metz vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Metz vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Stade Brestois 29 (-1.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.