Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6da37f21e53d99fb15ccd44f237a6fd19974f06a4affbb19125350b584da506c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 80c | 1,685$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.65 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 20c | 726.02$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 50c | 500$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 52c | 467.31$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.59 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 447.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.85 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 16c | 376.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 346.3$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.19 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 6c | 330.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 46c | 271.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.41 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 228.41$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.59 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.75 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Yes | 23c | 218$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 16c | 211.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef8f…e83bbacked Yes | 60c | 192.25$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…a583backed Yes | 17c | 134.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.36 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +127%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 15c | 133.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 47c | 123.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 78c | 116.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb597…2949backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 43c | 107$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 53c | 105.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +413.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Yes | 24c | 78.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 72.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 40c | 68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 16c | 61.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +208.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2444…bdd7backed Yes | 76c | 52.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…275bbacked No | 78c | 22.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-02-14?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-02-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.