Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6db3a07229f5527f46319a5d876dcba866b2a9c87885ff20eed659f0559cb226
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 790.66$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 20c | 336.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 216.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1ca5backed Yes | 22c | 173.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 80c | 165.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 38c | 156.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 146.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 135.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 80c | 125.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 119.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 55c | 109.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 90.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 23c | 87.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 77c | 82.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…e559backed Yes | 28c | 73.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 27c | 73.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 72.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…e6e1backed Yes | 26c | 69.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 66.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 55c | 62.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 71c | 62.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 60.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 60c | 57.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 37c | 50.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 46.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 53c | 43.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 41.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 80c | 38.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 67c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 60c | 35.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 33.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 80c | 33.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 32.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 26.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 79c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.